Quick Reminder, Real Life
What a crazy season it was for the Reds. To do it justice you’d probably have to write a book (and I hear Jeremy thinking to himself that this preview is entirely likely to turn into one the way I write). In the quick version we find the first half low-lighted by poor performances, the disasterous Joe Cole signing, Roy Hodgson being in over his head, a contentious change of ownership between two groups of Americans, and numerous debates online and in the press wondering whether Liverpool could possibly go down under the weight of all of the above.
As bad as the first half was, the second half was that good. New owners, back office staff, and manager made the bold move of selling off star Fernando Torres and replacing him with the excellent-so-far Luis Suarez and full-of-potential-but-overpriced Andy Carroll. The results improved dramatically and Raul Meireles proved to be more than adequate cover for oft-injured captain Steven Gerrard. All the drama aside, Liverpool had two major weaknesses last season - their left back position and playing away from Anfield where they could neither score nor keep the ball out of the net.
Quick Reminder, Fantasy
As crazy a season as it was for Liverpool on and off the pitch, it was no different for fantasy managers trying to figure this team out. Reina’s fortunes mimicked those of the club (bad early, better late). Meireles and Suarez had excellent second halves of the season while Carroll had a great first half while playing for Newcastle but injury dragged down his second half pretty badly. Finally, out of almost nowhere, Maxi Rodriguez had an absolutely amazing last two weeks which saw him get about a third of his overall output for the season. On the defensive side of the ball Martin Skertl was ever-present and had an OK season but the rest of the defenders were seemingly on a carousel due to injuries and general mediocrity.
Summer Changes
- Collect Them All: Central Midfield Edition - Despite having Meireles, Gerrard, Lucas, Aquilani, Poulsen, and a few youngsters with solid reputations like Spearing and Shelvey already on the books, Liverpool bought both Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson. The collection is impressive but one wonders how they’ll all co-exist peacefully. There are only so many minutes available.
- Finally a Winger - In a move that far too many people attributed to the new stats-based methods brought across the pond by John Henry and Co(who own the famously stats-driven Boston Red Sox baseball team in the US), Stewart Downing finds himself tasked with filling a spot in the Liverpool line-up that has been lacking for years. With Andy Carroll’s massive frame leading the line, it doesn’t take an sabremetrician (look it up) to know why Downing will be a useful cog in the Liverpool attack despite modest speed.
- Whither Left Back - It could be that Liverpool are waiting until late in the window to launch a final “take it or leave it” raid for someone like
LuisJose Enrique from Newcastle but thus far, no solutions to the massive gap on the left side of Liverpool’s back line. They can’t be thinking about continuing with Glen Johnson playing out of position, or youngster Jack Robinson, can they?
2011-12 Outlook, Real Life
On paper, the talent seems to be in place to move past Spurs for fifth and challenge Arsenal for fourth if everything goes their way. The problem is that a lot of the talent on paper plays the same position. This optimism is also tied heavily to Andy Carroll’s first half of last season being an indicator of his long term performance and not a hot streak that will see him revert to being a slightly (OK, much) beefier Peter Crouch (or a taller, less fat James Beattie if you like that analogy better). My guess is that unless Spurs find a forward who can actually score, Liverpool will pass them for fifth but won’t quite have enough to move past Arsenal for fourth. If Liverpool manage to bring in a CB (Cahill?) and an LB (Enrique?) before September 1st while Arsenal fail to get themselves a CB then I reserve the right to change my mind about their respective finishing position.
Probable Starting XI
Reina, Johnson, Kelly, Agger, Carragher, Lucas, Adam, Henderson, Downing, Carroll, Suarez
2011-12 Scouting Report, Yahoo Fantasy
- Fantasy Gold - Hard to call Suarez gold based on a solid half-season but I’m going to do it anyway - he looks like he’s about 85% of RvP with better health. The difference comes from the fact that Suarez won’t be the team's focal point to the same extent and he won’t take as many set pieces. I’m a bit torn on whether to put Downing in this category or not - his price seems just a bit high but I do like the potential of him a) bombing crosses in to Carroll; and b) being the 4th or 5th priority for defenses as they decide how to position themselves when Liverpool attack; and c) taking a share of Liverpool's set pieces. He could find himself with a lot of space as defenders flock to Carroll, Suarez, Gerrard (when healthy), and Adam/Henderson/Meireles who all have to be taken seriously as attacking threats.
- On The Rise - Every season a variety of factors create opportunities for value buying in the Yahoo! game:
- Agger (coming off injury) is the central defending version of John Arne Riise. A solid defender who plays for a good team and will get a good number of points based just on that. As a bonus, he has a rocket for a shot that will get him more than a CB’s share of goals and SOTs. His price is very reasonable assuming he’s healthy and starting for a top team.
- Kelly (relative newcomer) had a strong run just after the midway point in the season where he was starting at right back and putting up very solid fantasy points. An injury ended his season prematurely which was a bummer for him and fantasy managers but it means that his price is reasonable starting off the season if he regains his starting spot (which isn’t guaranteed but worth watching).
- Traps - There are a LOT of potential traps on the Liverpool squad this season. By acquiring players like Adam and Downing who were top attacking options for their clubs last season they have assembled a lot of expensive fantasy players who can’t possibly all live up to their performances last season. The most likely candidates to take a step back this season are Kuyt (guaranteed), Adam, Maxi and Henderson with Meireles not far behind. If you’re in an FA Cup/Carling Cup fantasy league, that would be a really strong group to go with though.
2011-12 Outlook, Official PL Fantasy
Studs: It’s so difficult to classify Liverpool players as studs with such exorbitant prices this season and so much optimism in ‘real life’ translating into the fantasy game, but there is one man who could shine above the rest - and it’s not Steven Gerrard. It’s Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan is priced right at 9.5M and should finish with a 10 goal, 10 assist ‘Malouda-esque’ contribution (despite his classification as a forward). Martin Kelly (5.5M) would be a stud at that price if guaranteed a starting role, so we will keep tabs on that situation before labeling him an out and out Suarez-esque stud.
Duds: Steven Gerrard (11M) and Andy Carroll (10M) are really, really expensive. Superb players in ‘real life’ but Gerrard will miss the first few weeks of the season with a groin problem and Carroll doesn’t seem like the best value at 10M after half of a great Premier League season and with Didier Drogba only 0.5M more and Darren Bent priced the same. I can’t rationally invest in Carroll at 10M unless I see the Suarez/Carroll partnership really blossom since he doesn’t take set pieces and to be honest, doesn’t seem like that likeable of a lad off the pitch.
On the fence: Charlie Adam. He may be a focal point the first few weeks with Gerrard out but the 9M price-tag and aforementioned central midfield logjam puts him on the fence. Downing at 8.5M will see his share of set pieces and if he starts week in and week out should provide service for Carroll and Suarez and move from the ‘on the fence’ category to the stud category. For now, Adam, Kuyt, Meireles, Downing, Henderson and others are all on the fence until we get a better understanding of Liverpool’s formation and starting XI.
Quick Reminder, Real Life
This was the season when all of the money invested started to pay off in a big way. Lots of shiny new objects came into the squad with the corresponding spare parts mostly going out on loan. Some of them fit - Yaya Toure, David Silva - while some of them didn’t - Jerome Boateng - and the jury is still out on others - Edin Dzeko, Mario Balotelli, and Aleksander Kolarov. Still, at the end of the day, the money produced results in the form of an FA Cup trophy and an invitation to Europe’s biggest dance, the Champions League, for the upcoming season. Can’t really argue with that... unless you are turned off by teams just buying big names like the real world were just a big game of fantasy football.
Quick Reminder, Fantasy
Given their results on the pitch, you’d think that there would be more fantasy success around this group but that’s just not the way it turned out. The size of the squad and the frequent rotation between very good and pretty good players kept fantasy output low. The unquestioned fantasy studs were Joe Hart and Carlos Tevez with Kompany and Kolarov putting up solid numbers as well. Beyond that, players like YToure and Silva were much more productive on the real pitch than the virtual one.
Summer Changes
- Switching Argentines - For all of Tevez’s excellence on the pitch, he can’t quite seem to get comfortable off of it. I don’t know if he is really that much of a family man or if it’s just an excuse to agitate for more money but he seems intent on leaving with Inter (not really any closer to Buenos Aires) the likely destination. Regardless, his replacement has already arrived in the form of one Sergio “Kun” Aguero who looks likely to light up the league with a little less drive but a lot more skill and technique than his countryman.
- Another ex-Gooner - To mimic the great Bill Simmons, when you can continue to overpay for over-rated players who one of your close rivals never complains about letting go you’ve gotta do it, right? Does anyone remember Wenger complaining bitterly about potentially losing Kolo, K2, or Clichy? I haven’t.
- That Other Guy - With Jerome Boateng headed immediately back to Germany having made almost no impact, Citeh have brought in Stefan Savic from Partizan Belgrade as a replacement. The 20 year-old Montenegran has represented his country at all youth levels and has recently broken into the senior team. He seems unlikely to start over the Richards/Zabaleta/Boyata/Onuoha bunch but he should offer cover at RB and CB (maybe pushing Lescott?) as well as promise for the future.
2011-12 Outlook, Real Life
On paper, there’s a ton of talent here and we saw last season that it can fit together at least reasonably well. With Chelsea seemingly in a bit of a holding pattern if not slipping back ever-so-slightly as their core ages, you have to think City are primed to make a serious challenge for the second spot and could even make a serious run at the top spot if a second year together for most of these players helps them become more than the sum of their very talented parts. If Kun at least reasonably approximates Tevez’s production without the constant whining about not wanting to be in Manchester then second place seems like the lower limit of their ambitions.
Probable Starting XI
Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, de Jong, Toure (Y), Silva, Milner, Dzeko, Aguero
2011-12 Scouting Report, Yahoo Fantasy
- Fantasy Gold - Hart is really the only player here who has proven to be worth a high price. Tevez is technically still on the roster as of this writing but I’m assuming he’s gone or at the very least de-valued by the presence of Aguero.
- On The Rise - Every season a variety of factors create opportunities for value buying in the Yahoo! game:
- Aguero (newcomer) is going to be really good. There is probably not much need to write more on the topic, everyone will be picking him up.
- Balotelli (relative newcomer) never really got settled in last season. He is undoubtedly talented but about as immature as they come. His price isn’t too high so if the light turns on, he could be a great bargain. More likely it won’t and he’ll be a spot starter and frequent reserve.
- Dzeko (relative newcomer) never really got settled in last season. The reasons are different because he seems to be a solid citizen (pun sort of intended) who just hasn’t found his way into a style of play that doesn’t really suit him as well as it could. Still, if things start going his way he’ll be solid value.
- Traps - As with the other “big” teams, there are a bunch of potential traps in the form of high priced players who got that way playing regularly elsewhere but who now are rotated with regularity - Milner, Kolarov, Clichy, and Lescott are all priced over 10 and at great risk of giving you a big fat ZERO on any given weekend.
2011-12 Outlook, Official PL Fantasy
Studs: New club captain Vincent Kompany is a massive fantasy stud at 6M. He should start week in and week out at CB alongside Lescott (at least until Toure comes back) and is relatively ‘cheap’ for a Top 4 defender. Bonus points should come his way as well. I highly recommend him. David Silva has looked superb in pre-season and if it wasn’t for his price (9.5M) he’d be as automatic in my fantasy lineup as Kompany would be. The Spaniard’s issue, of course is lack of goals. He should easily surpass 10+ assists this year but will he score more than 4 or 5 goals? He’ll need to to keep City in the Champions League places and I really believe this will be a break-out season for the Spain international. At 8M or even 8.5M he’s unbelievable value but at 9.5M and with Van der Vaart, Nasri, Nani, and Ashley Young priced in the same range - fantasy managers will have some very very difficult decisions to make in the coming weeks.
Duds: Adam Johnson and James Milner (both 7.5M). I love Johnson’s speed and trickery, and if he receives 30+ starts in the league he’s a stud, but I can’t trust Mancini and his rotation policy on the wings. Let’s monitor Johnson’s development and if he becomes ‘undroppable’ due to some early season form he could become a stud signing (and could ease financial burden for fantasy managers who ‘downgrade’ from Silva’s 9.5M to AJ’s 7.5M and still keep City exposure). Milner is a dud. He was an amazing fantasy signing a few years ago at Aston Villa but has lost all set piece duties and is not guaranteed a starting role.
On the fence: At the back, new signing Gael Clichy (6M) is priced right but has competition from Kolarov and Zabaleta so is less of a ‘sure’ thing and must be placed on the stud/dud fence. Yaya Toure should start regularly, but it remains to be seen whether De Jong (5M) will continue as his ‘protector’ - freeing up Yaya to rampage forward, or whether the former Barcelona man will be trusted with a more defensive role to free up the classy Silva. If it’s the latter it will be hard to justify spending 8M. If De Jong starts regularly and pushes Yaya forward, he’s a good signing. Up front, it’s all up in the air. Aguero, Dzeko, Balotelli and Tevez (though he will probably move clubs) are all good options but Aguero and Balotelli stand out as the most explosive if Tevez leaves. Bellamy and Adebayor, ironically, have great experience in the Premier League but aren’t even listed in the Official PL Fantasy game and will be loaned out.
Quick Reminder, Real Life
A record breaking 19th league title and a Champions League Final appearance. Sort of speaks for itself, doesn’t it? These are even more impressive accomplishments since a lot of neutral observers would agree that it happened in something of a transition year for United. Their central midfield lacked an above-average talent (which Barca made abundantly clear in the Champions League final) and they featured a lot of very young (Rafael, Fabio, Smalling, and Chicharito) and very old players (Scholes, Giggs, and EvdS) all over the pitch in regular roles. The breakout star of the season and likely the difference between winning the title and not, was Mexican forward Javier Hernandez. Chicharito’s gift for efficient scoring saw him displace Dimitar Berbatov, the league’s joint top-scorer, as a starter. The only downside other than the loss in the final to Barca was a frustrating and non-Ferguson-like tendency to lose leads late on the road. “Fergie Time” just wasn’t quite the same when the Red Devils left Old Trafford last season. Still, with the title in the bag, that’s really just nitpicking isn’t it?
Quick Reminder, Fantasy
Nani was a fantasy stud for the first half of the season but ended it as only a part-time starter. Berbatov had matches where he was incredible followed by long barren stretches that caused fantasy managers to pull out the hair Rooney ultimately had transplanted in. Vidic was excellent but expensive. Park was incredibly effective for the price in limited duty. After a disasterous first half of the season, Rooney came back and had at least a pretty good second half (although still not up to his standards or price). Chris Smalling had a very nice run of production for a cheap price as injuries sidelined Ferdinand.
Summer Changes
- BFAY - We’ve been big fans of Ashley Young since he came to the Premier League with Watford (BFAY stands for ). Young has continued to excel since that first season with progressively better clubs and now he gets his chance on the biggest stage in England. The biggest question is how he fits with existing wings Nani and Antonio Valencia.
- The Next Wave - In preparation for the Rio/Vidic partnership aging SAF added Phil Jones to Chris Smalling. Jones wasn’t a fulltime starter with Rovers last season but is expected to mature into an excellent player. In the same vein, David De Gea was brought in as the long term replacement for EvdS who retired.
- Retiring Legend - Paul Scholes finally rode off into the sunset. His last season wasn’t nearly as good as the media reported but he certainly can be discussed in terms of a media lifetime achievement award. Even in reduced form, he will be missed.
- Returnees - While they’re not technically new to United, they return Tom Cleverly, Danny Welbeck and Mame Diouf who all gained valuable experience at other Premier League teams last season. It is unlikely that any will break in as fulltime starters but you could certainly see Welbeck and Cleverly playing at least occasional roles.
2011-12 Outlook, Real Life
Despite all of the success of last season, you never really got the feeling that this was one of United’s most dominant teams. They won and that can’t be taken away but it was as much down to the lack of an exceptional rival for the title as their own excellence. Given that their major acquisitions were more about doubling down on existing strengths (central defense and wings) and replacing an outgoing player with one of great potential but uncertain preparedness to deliver at the top level (keeper) immediately you wonder if they took steps to sufficient steps to stay on top. Regardless, it seems like the options for United are first or second for the upcoming season.
Probable Starting XI
De Gea, Rafael, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Carrick, Anderson, Young, Nani, Rooney, Hernandez
2011-12 Scouting Report, Yahoo Fantasy
- Fantasy Gold - If healthy and starting regularly then Vidic, Rooney, Nani, and BFAY all fall into this category. The questions in this area mostly revolve around Nani and Young and the potential that they’ll suffer from rotation with Valencia available to fill in more than capably.
- On The Rise - Every season a variety of factors create opportunities for value buying in the Yahoo! game:
- DDG (newcomer) hasn’t been given the #1 shirt yet but if he is, he’ll be a great bargain even if he isn’t quite up to the standard set by van der Sar.
- Rafael (relative newcomer) seems likely to be the regular starter at right back and comes at a relatively cheap price. The caveat is that as I write this he went off very early in the pre-season match with Barca which doesn’t bode well.
- Fabio (relative newcomer) is less likely to start regularly because Evra blocks his path on the left and his brother seems preferred on the right side. That said, if Rafael’s injury concerns persist or Evra picks some up Fabio seems even more inclined to attack than his brother.
- Anderson (new starter?) is being included here mostly for Jeremy’s sake. He keeps thinking “this will be the year Anderson comes good”. I’m much less convinced that he’ll ever come good and even less convinced that if he does it will translate into fantasy statistics. Still, he may start regularly for one of the best teams in the league and he’s cheap so he merits watching early.
- Traps - At this point in their respective careers, Evra and Berbatov fall most easily into this category but for different reasons. Evra’s price is extremely high based on performances from previous seasons that he just couldn’t match last season. Berbatov is the ultimate risk/reward proposition. Despite his 20 goals last season he isn’t a regular starter and even when he does play he was feast or famine. If you paid the price and got him on the right day, he scored big for you. More frequently, he either didn’t start or he started and did next to nothing.
2011-12 Outlook, Official PL Fantasy
Studs: Wayne Rooney, the most expensive player in the game (12M) is a season long stud. Penalty taker for the champions and with the service he should receive from the likes of Nani, Young, and Valencia, I anticipate another successful fantasy footie season for Wazza. Vidic (like Leighton Baines) is priced high at 8M but United do keep it tight at the back and he’s a stud despite the exorbitant fee. Big “if,” but if Nani and/or Ashley Young start 30+ league games they are obviously must-owns. Wonder how the rotation policy will work out...
Duds: Avoid Rio Ferdinand (6.5M) even though he is more affordable than Vidic and Evra. Sir Alex Ferguson will rest his aging veteran and Chris Smalling, Phil Jones and Jonny Evans will receive some playing time as well. Dont buy Rio. You will be disappointed.
On the fence:Keep an eye on Cleverley (5.5M) if Sneijder isn’t signed, though it’s unlikely that the youngster will start on a regular basis unless there is an injury crisis. Welbeck (7M) is also priced right and with Hernandez suffering from concussion and set to miss the first few league games, the young speedster could be a major risk/reward pick if Sir Alex plays him alongside Rooney or Berbatov. Berbatov, of course, last year’s Golden Boot winner, is always solid at Old Trafford but at 9.5M he’s on the stud/dud fence with so much competition up front for starts.
